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Conjunctural Economics

2014-2015

FACULTÉ DE GESTION, ECONOMIE & SCIENCES ( FGES )

Class code :

1415-FGES-M1A-FIN-M1-12

FINANCE


Level Year Period Language of instruction 
Master1AFrench
Academic responsibilityH.EL ASRAOUI
Lecturer(s)-


Prerequisites

Knowledge of fundamental economy and finance. Regular reading of economic and financial press. Interest in the evolution of fluctuations in the environment and their impact on markets, particularly the financial market. Follow the publication of economic indicators by statistical organizations in France and abroad.

Learning outcomes

Encourage the acquisition of diagnosis and prospective techniques in conjunctural analysis. This course provides for future executives and leaders, particularly in the field of finance, elements for better understanding of the economic environment and tools to help with decision making.

Course description

Chapter 1: History of Economic Cycles and Data for Observing Macro-economic Fluctuations
1. History and Theory Conjunctural Economics
2. What is Conjunctural Macro-economics?
3. Economic Data for Observing Macro-economic Fluctuations

Chapter 2: Methods of Conjunctural Analysis and Principal Indicators
1. Given Sources for Conjunctural Analysis
1.1. Administrative and Professional Sources
1.2. Census Reports, Surveys and Conjunctural Investigations
1.2.1. Conjunctural Investigations for NISES
1.2.2. Inquiries for the Bank of France
1.2.3. Other Investigations

2. Techniques Used
2.1. Sales Opinions
2.2. Mobile Average
2.3. Seasonal Variation Corrections
2.4. Working Day Corrections
2.5. Elimination of Aberrant Months
2.6. Average, Shifts and Growth Experience

3. Conjunctural Indicators
3.1. GDP and Growth
3.2. Industrial Production Index
3.3. Household Consumption
3.4. Employment and Unemployment
3.5. Consumer Price Index
3.6. National Accounts

Chapter 3: Conjunctural Analysis Methods and Principal Indicators
1. National Indicators of Activities and Price
1.1. Industrial Production Index (United States, Japan, Germany, Great Britain)
1.2. ISM Manufacturer Index
1.3. IFO, ZEW and TANKAN Indexes
1.4. Household Confidence Index: Michigan & Conference Board
1.5. Indicators for the American Labor Market
1.6. Balance of Trade and Budgetary Pay
1.7. Leading Indicators

2. Economic and Financial Impacts
2.1. GDP and Economic Growth
2.2. The Bond Market and the Shares Market
2.3. Reciprocal Influences of Conjunctural Economics and Financial Markets
2.4. Analysis of the Economic Cycle and its Influence on the Markets

3. The Role of Economic Politics and its Impact on the Markets
3.1. Impact on Interest Rates
3.2. Analysis and Forecasting of the Curve of Rates
3.3. Sensibility to American Markets


Class type

Class structure

Educational Methods
• Course Lecture: yes (15 hours)
• Tutorial Classes: no
• Case Studies…: Study the impact of a sample conjunctural event on real and financial spheres +Presentation + Report to turn in (15 hours)

Type of courseNumbers of hoursComments
Face to face
LECTURE15,00  
Independent study
PERSONAL WORK35,00  
Total student workload50,00  

Teaching methods

  • Lecture


Assessment

Continuous Assessment (homework and group work in class) + midterm + final exam. (25% +25% +50%)

Type of controlDurationNumberPercentage break-down
Continuous assessment
CONTINUOUS ASSESSMENT0,00040,00
Final Exam
FINAL EXAM2,00160,00
TOTAL     100,00

Recommended reading

  • Les modèles économétriques - ARTUS Pierre

    ARTUS Pierre [1988] : "Les modèles économétriques", Les Cahiers français, N°235, mars-avril, Documentation française.

  • Conjoncture - BNP PARIBAS

    BNP PARIBAS : "Conjoncture", revue, publication mensuelle

  • La prévision économique - CARNOT Nicolas et TISSOT Bruno

    CARNOT Nicolas et TISSOT Bruno [2002] : "La prévision économique", Editions Economica

  • L'analyse de la conjoncture - CLING Jean-Pierre

    CLING Jean-Pierre [1990] : "L'analyse de la conjoncture", Repères, Edition La découverte.

  • Analyse conjoncturelle : entre statistique et économie - INSEE [2002]

    INSEE [2002] : "Analyse conjoncturelle : entre statistique et économie", Economie et Statistique, N°359-360.

  • Note de Conjoncture - INSEE CONJONCTURE

    INSEE CONJONCTURE : Note de Conjoncture", revue, publication mensuelle.

  • Peut-on faire confiance aux marchés financiers - JACQUILLAT Bertrand (Le Cercle des économistes coordonnées par) [2003]

    JACQUILLAT Bertrand (Le Cercle des économistes coordonnées par) [2003] : «Peut-on faire confiance aux marchés financiers» Avant-Propos : Jean-François Theodore et Jean-Hervé Lorenzi.

  • Croissance et cycles : théories contemporaines - MUET Pierre-Alain

    MUET Pierre-Alain [1993] : "Croissance et cycles : théories contemporaines", Editions Economica.

  • Essai sur la conjoncture et la prévision économique - SAUVY Alfred

    SAUVY Alfred [1938] : "Essai sur la conjoncture et la prévision économique", Editions du Centre Polytechnicien d'études économiques, Paris.

  • Histoire économique de la France entre les deux guerres - SAUVY Alfred

    SAUVY Alfred [1984] : "Histoire économique de la France entre les deux guerres" trois volumes, Economica, Paris (réédition de l'ouvrage publié en quatre volumes aux éditions Fayard entre 1965 et 1975).

  • La conjoncture : Des indicateurs aux politiques économiques - VASQUEZ Manuel

    VASQUEZ Manuel (sous la direction) [2002] : La conjoncture : Des indicateurs aux politiques économiques, La Documentation Française.


Internet resources